Alibaba privatisation B2B: jack ma big play magic at the dozen tiger

Jack ma big play capital magic, "close the door dozen tiger" in

Alibaba group, as a "big brother" B2B business finally finished the historical mission, will exit the stage of the capital market.

21 night, alibaba group (hereinafter referred to as "ali group") and alibaba network Co., LTD. (hereinafter referred to as "ali B2B") jointly announced that, by ali group (" the offeror ") to the board of directors of the B2B put forward privatization offer ali, privatisation price of hk $13.5 per share, and the end of 2007 listed recruit share price levels. If successful privatisation cost, is expected to hk $18.25 billion and hk $19.628 billion between.

The announcement, ali resumption of B2B rose 42.703% to hk $13.2 per share, a 2% discount to the privatisation price only. Instead, ali group big shareholders yahoo shares fell nearly 2%.

Privatisation cost about 19 billion hk dollar

According to the agreement, ali B2B privatisation price is more February 9, before the 60 recently suspended trading day's average closing price premium and 60.4% over the last 10 trading day average closing price premium 55.3%. Ali B2B said, will not improve privatization in price.

The privatisation of money, will be filled by the macau bank, Switzerland, Singapore branch bank of credit, DBS bank, deutsche bank Singapore branch, HSBC and red ear industrial bank Hong Kong branch of external debt financing and provide ali group's internal cash providing resources. The privatisation is expected to cost hk $18.25 billion and hk $19.628 billion in between.

In November 2007, ali B2B landed in Hong Kong exchange, information collected more than 13 billion yuan. When the opening price hk $30, with close hk $40 closed at first, each hand not plan can make 13000 yuan fee. Listed, alibaba respectively in 2009, 2010 and share out bonus, total 2.11 billion hk dollar.

In May 2011, alibaba in Hong Kong a shareholder meeting, board chairman of alibaba group MaYunCeng will share price rise to investors not to apologize, and make fun of say: "from 2007 to now, we listed revenues and profits for 2 to 3 times, but share price didn't move, but the didn't do anything, the stock rose to more than 40 hk dollar."

The privatisation offer says, promote its listed subsidiary ali group privatization (B2B) core factors, is to be in a strategic transformation and upgrading of ali B2B during, give small shareholders a cash investment opportunities. Alibaba group, and in the joint statement alibaba, strategic transformation will be in short-term inside income growth to soften impact earnings expectations.

According to Hong Kong securities of the company purchase and merger rules "regulation, merger approved the resolution to at the same time satisfy the two conditions: to attend the meeting of independent voting rights held by the shareholders of 75% or more agree; Will the resolution throw no more than all voted against independent shareholders (including the failure to attend the meeting) 10% of the voting rights held by the.

Jpmorgan chase reported, 46% premium price based on privatisation, ali earnings, and small shareholders weak 27.03% shareholding, equity dispersed, the B2B privatisation through the chance to big ali.

The latest annual report 2011 shows alibaba, annual revenue up 15.5% to RMB 6.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.6% net profit to 1.71 billion yuan. Though it is worth noting that registered users increase 23.5% year-on-year, members pay 5.4% year-on-year drop.

Brillant capital game?

Ali B2B CFO WuWei reading when earnings, said the privatization pricing is from three aspects to consider: a B2B trading history is ali price, next is comparable with the Internet company, and the third is the privatisation of Hong Kong trade in recent years. "If the market over the past three years, the market benchmark compared premium proportion ranged from 25% to 47%. So, according to the statement, the group provides the price more attractive."

And MaYunZe in internal E-mail says: "some say we listed only melts to $1.7 billion, but privatisation will take out more than 20 U.S. dollars, looks like it's a red business, it is suggested that we can use a low price of the stock to buy back. But this is not alibaba's style."

An anonymous Hong Kong investment manager says that, although the listed company to buy without in any price investors return is responsible, but "when ali B2B to visit Hong Kong listed, investors see it as China Google, many people in the 20-30 Hong Kong dollar position for long-term investment, hard to avoid buying disappointment."

ChinaVenture hit group chief analysts LiWeiDong to SMW reporter analysis says, from the past year or two's share price performance at a premium price is more than 60% of the privatisation is rational, but from listed more than four years the share price performance view is too low, not to create long-term investors return space. "Ali B2B past created the profits, support to clean out treasure, and pay treasure of the growth of the business, according to recruit share price is equivalent to privatize from capital market obtained an low-interest loans, is the capital operation by."

According to the statistics of the us stock I, from 2008-2010 (ended September that year) alibaba group revenue from $450 million increase to 1.29 billion, the year at a compound rate of 168%, ali B2B revenue growth from $410 million to $770 million, the year compound annual growth rate of 134%. This shows, ali B2B for ali group is an important contribution to profits, to support the taobao, pay treasure to expand the size of the market.

But, after 10 years of development, ali's dramas to "change corner" moment. Analysys international analysts JiJianZhe accept SMW reporter interviews that, alibaba 2011 total membership appeared to reduce, although annual revenue is still growing, but growth appear a certain degree of slowing, from some kind of meaning shows ali B2B business development has entered into a transformation of the necessary period. "Last year ali group formally will clean out treasure to split into a cat nets (search), dragons (the Po) (C2C), day cat (micro Po) (B2C), and the three companies and ali B2B cooperation, through the" one-stop "work style service will achieve maximized enterprise value. If in the future of alibaba group, whole appears on the market, with alibaba platform in the e-commerce industry chain position will make its obtain ideal valuations. Privatisation B2B just push" big ali strategy of step, "to withdraw from the market will make its strategic adjustment of more active, flexible."

Ali B2B CFO WuWei say, how will the company for ali B2B integration and taobao, in the next few quarters will make further details of the project. In addition, he said, "is not an IPO alibaba group plan, if public word is also a few years later things. Alibaba group does not need to listed company private B2B premise."

Yahoo buy the first play of the war

Despite the joint announcement to say, privatization plans do not deal with possible yahoo as a prerequisite, and the yahoo deal is not complete privatization plans as a prerequisite. But analysts in earnings conference call the proposed "the privatisation of time seems more sensitive". To this, WuWei said the privatization deal with group and yahoo between any negotiations no relation, and the other in alibaba group company is absolutely no relationship.

Thereafter, the question again analysts, "yahoo to the deal attitude?" And to question the yahoo as alibaba group one of the larger shareholders, the decision whether to privatization deal will influence. WuWei said, it is not convenient to comment on the problem of the group level.

According to the announcement, ali group and its consistent action people currently hold the listed company 73.5% of the shares. Public material shows that yahoo has ali group the equity of 40%.

ChinaVenture hit group chief analysts LiWeiDong said privatisation trade and repurchase yahoo shares the same time, will increase the capital demand ali group. "So do not rule out some of the assets in the B2B ali future as ali group and yahoo trade bait, to reduce capital pressure."

LiWeiDong think, yahoo to trade in evaluating the, the main consideration factors include: the business assets if you can and existing business reach coordination effect, increase the company revenue; Second, that can bring money paid to shareholders.

Ali B2B since 2010 for several acquisitions, including U.S. e-commerce company Vendio and Auctiva.

Talk about China's brand camouflage and big shortcut

Of tangled "false foreign brand"

"Your" sing the stage "-this is the latest period about the" true and false foreign brand "endless debate the best explanation.

According to the xinhua daily February 13 reported, not long ago had become a hot topic of public furniture brand "Da Vinci", after a series of "fight media", "v. industry and commerce" move, already in 11 fails to pay a fine of 1.3342 million yuan.

Even if the government investigation branch has a decision, but "the Da Vinci" pay a fine move seems to also expressed its compromise attitude, but "the Da Vinci" one party's public statements observation, "Da Vinci" did not, "false foreign brand," said one of the qualitative give positive response.

Similar "Da Vinci" false foreign brand debate, in today's China market can be found everywhere. Along with the network developed, past a problem of businesses are surfacing: one party is consumer think be deceived, one party is the argument against and businessman.

But, "false foreign brand" as a marketing strategy to see, whether to be totally negative? The central television brand consultant, brand strategy LiGuangDou experts in accept "China runs a newspaper (blog, the bo)" reporter interview points out, some publicity as long as is legal laws and regulations, or can understand and accept, consumers don't over explanation.

True and false foreign brand

Beijing a foreign enterprise employee WangXinYu (a pseudonym) was to journalists complain, before she often and colleagues discussed and buying entrance brand clothing. Recently, she found that, he has been favored French brand SKAP belonging to a shenzhen, called "LongHao" clothing enterprise. Miss wang had to search on the Internet and found in baidu in wikipedia explicitly pointed out that "SKAP" is LongHao its famous enterprise, and SOSO ask that, SKAP brand was established in 1863 in France, shenzhen LongHao shoes industry chain Co., LTD. Is the French SKAP features of products "neck tattoo skin" is the sole agent in China of, this enterprise has introduced the design of the French SKAP version to.

Reporter and then go online information search, found in the brand of the previous campaign, had used such as "international well-known brand" "the French brand" "comes from the French" and other words. And now it's website and its taobao mall in the site, in addition to emphasize its French outside chief designer, has gone on "the French brand the statement that". However, the French SKAP and LongHao SKAP under the clear relationship, all can't find out through its website. Reporter once many times on this issue at shenzhen LongHao shoes industry, all did not reply.

Similar to leonardo Da Vinci and SKAP so controversial brand in China today is not in the business of a minority. Generally, the consumer of the mouth there are several false brand classification, not each of the alleged fraud. The first kind is only in the foreign registration "shell" brand. Some enterprise only in the foreign registration a trademark, the products of the production, design, sales are in the domestic, but because under the banner of "entrance", value rising immediately several times.

The second type is registered in China brand, but technology or raw materials in introducing foreign, and fuzzy in the propaganda insists that his foreign descent. This kind of more prone to fraud queries.

And those, it is import brand, it can be divided into two kinds: one kind is pure entrance brand, by foreign companies in foreign registered trademark design and production, and then get ready to import to China sales. The second is authorized by the foreign brands, the domestic enterprise according to the unified regulation processing production, and marketing. This kind of brand of foreign brands there is nothing wrong with that, as long as the marketing process in moderate legitimate, it should not be considered for fraud.

And in the food industry also exists some vague brand identity. Such as the recent popular with media attention "new red zi" milk powder, product since 2006 to enter the Chinese market, its all the products of the company are imported from New Zealand, but in the long-term of marketing, the product was that the New Zealand market is pure brand, and events are critical light, enterprise also carry on a "excessive, false conduct propaganda" the name.

"New red zi" company CEO LiuNing told the China business news reporter said interview, new red by New Zealand native mange AIDS milk powder, local authorized in New Zealand complete packaging production factory, the entire accept New Zealand food safety supervision department of the local regulatory, complete with New Zealand food safety agency about baby formula milk powder food safety standards. In New Zealand complete product packaging production after certificate, the original cans of import to China, in China's entry and exit inspection and quarantine inspection qualified certificate issued by CIQ only after, the products to enter the channel sales, so called the New Zealand imported milk powder and have misgivings.

Throughout a few brands are faced with the problem, in fact all around for "the brand" whether on. And according to the advertisement law of the People's Republic of article 9 of the regulations, in the advertisement of product performance, place of origin, USES, quality, price, manufacturer, useful life, promised to or to the service of the content, the form, quality, price, promised to have said, it shall be clear and understand. Article 4 also clearly stipulates that advertising shall not contain false content, not deceive and mislead consumers.

However, in the actual law enforcement process, some "outside" behavior, for example: the above some leather shoe manufacturers, who used to use "came from Italy" such publicity slogans. But whether this propaganda can is recognized for fraud, but not too good to define, and derived "true and false foreign brand" all kinds of disputes.

All China lawyers association, the professional company law, deputy director of the commission, Beijing ZhongZi law firm partners ZhangXiaoSen when accepting a reporter to interview, says the law in the propaganda enterprise products should be clear product performance, origin, usage, quality, but in propaganda enterprise brand culture, with some such as "from......" Saying, from the law can't tell that its fraud.

A lift back marketing

LiGuangDou told reporters, the businessman in the brand construction process, as long as do not break the law, take the brand of "a car", or special emphasis on his own with the advantages of foreign about some, is an understandable propaganda. For example, "furniture really Germany" this propaganda language, key for insists that his the import of raw materials, in the moral and emotional consumers may not be accepted, but the law have no problem.

And the brand of China industry league secretary general proceedings to reporters, some take YangChe way also can yet be regarded as a kind of the brand construction clever means. "The brand is not only different from other similar products name, it contains the product localization, packaging, and even publicity mode. For example, even if the Chinese people in local Japanese restaurant, also want to try to have the lasting appeal of a Japanese name, decorate a style to also want to turn to in Japanese. Call" loess upper part Japanese cuisine "must not attract customers."

Proceedings thinks, consumer excessive reading "false foreign brand" is a kind of twist, "the brand development, there is a disorder of the stage, the period of the features are: brand manager itself losing strength, lack of laws and regulations, the relevant departments of weak supervision. We should correctly understand the stage, not blindly blame."

However, for some enterprise operator speaking, they should be thinking about how to a foreign brand consumers will be recognized, and if marketing "degree" assurance not well, consumers will produce resistance.

In fact, the businessman first face is domestic brand of Chinese consumers mistrust of the quality problem, its reason beyond say, in this case, consumers will buy the complicity to choose the brand. Secondly, the businessman also face consumer "blindly worshiping foreign things" mentality.

Domestic earlier agency of Shanghai international luxury brands, Norman brand management Co., LTD ZhuXingYi President when accepting a reporter to interview, said: "in China have such a phenomenon, the more high-end brand, more afraid and" China "2 words at relationship." ZhuXingYi in the business of luxury of time, have ever had such difficult: ZhuXingYi company in order to be able to control the acquisition of the supply some European brand, but always hesitated to don't open the brand of Chinese master identity, and after the takeover of the brand is the brand or local brand? ZhuXingYi has not find the way to define.

In addition, the international big corporations, with world famous brand constantly capturing, also squeezed the local brand market. These real foreign brand usually fundstrength abundant, easily through the strong propaganda by consumers. Beijing zhan's general manager of limited company of the Chinese dress him, told reporters today some international group for China quality brand strategy is to try to control purchase, such as a purchase, and in the international market down, in case of China have world influence brand.

"In this case, the local brands has come to life and death moment, only everybody alliance, and get the policy and attention to the fostering living those hard management of local brands continue to survive. Otherwise, the phenomenon of brand will still false flood, and in the consumer market and formed in the vicious cycle."

Lenovo investment Co., LTD, managing director for the red LiGuQing AIDS milk powder that said: "China enterprise, or the Chinese background enterprise, through the capital control or entrust production overseas resources, in the integration of private brand, own formula technology, own procurement and supplier management team, and on the basis of related inspection standards, can meet the domestic supply in upstream resources to which may exists short board. Whether a short time is called" true foreign brand "or" false foreign brand ", as long as the long run to the healthy development of the market is good, is worth propped up."

And LiGuangDou is pointed out that, in the laws and regulations, be more strictly controlled to prevent "false foreign brand" wit and humour, meanwhile, ensure reasonable and clever publicity mode. "With clothing enterprise, for example, can ask the tags on more specific as main raw materials, finished product, and producers of brand belongs. In"

How to make the rich for high-end brand

I do in Coca-Cola, director of sales, have two pieces of the little things in life has left me with a deep memory.

One is in the system from the coke a driver magic for advancement to millions of this level of annual salary executives, whatever the situation, as long as I see him, never wear a coke red work uniforms, careful observation, the top still seems to be washed with little not very clean!

2 it is one of my responsible for "the earl" table China business handsome boy friend flatly and I said: at least hundreds of thousands of a grade of the list, dealers often not only a penny discount don't give customers, but also investigate your personal background and circle of friends, not enough social class, not spend money can buy get. Hear the car industry's top current car, so limited conditions, many manufacturers have rules: potential consumers to buy the current car, must by have joined car club VIP members can recommend approval.

2010 years of luxury consumption to 40 billion euros ($). And Boston consulting company announced: China in 3 years will become the world's largest luxury consumption market. But in China has a very uncomfortable for the but corroborated the 5000 years of the old adage: rich only three generations. This proves three facts:

First, the current rich, even rich the second generation, and most of the fortress version of the noble only grade and temperament, because the noble is need hundreds of years of experience to precipitation, the rich are currently only injustice demote for "upstart" (of course many times endows the upstart or a personal mind and earned their lawful wealth);

Second, the rich need through have something different from other people support their success and individual character, get the psychological and physical satisfied;

Third, in the full of inflation fears of s, at present the rich, do not represent rich and rich children forever after. If the representative of their own success iconic value products can be perfect, and then produced a gold, antique, diamond, nanmu with investment boom.

Give a simple example: the Great Wall of wine company has domestic high-end brand "sanggan wine", from the raw material to the origin to brew does unbeatable, but many years locked in no one know chaste, is to sell the not price. But China's leaders are welcome President Obama's state banquet is used on the Great Wall sanggan, this wine and sudden fame since sparrow. Cofco Great Wall wine company in 60 anniversary "for the republic shout" activities reignited propaganda "sanggan wine" squalls, let its fame and sales have more ascension.

Wine is must luxury industry, with investment and the collection value, so the middle of the high-end chateau wine is a high-end brand potential. High-end brand, is always give small all the rich illicit close toys. If working in general as authentic as buying Zara buy armani, that armani's customers will have a new and higher choice.

Traditional enterprise how to do high-end brand? I want to enterprise must to high-end is luxury, or in the same position in the category of high grade, a clear anticipation and grasp. Mongolian cow's milk is a liquid at Sue the high-end brand, but to say you can drink, Sue is hebron reflect luxurious, that then.

Also, Chinese traditional enterprise can do have class brand, but history and culture accumulation, destined we cannot be in short-term inside quickly make a luxury brand. Can you believe that one with thousands of pieces and 20000 dollars a month of a brand manager can understand and lead the concept of luxury? But as long as you calm down grasp the chance to do high-end, time will bring you in addition to build a luxury kingdom outline of opportunity.

Traditional enterprise do high-end brands, Chinese, national, personalized unique products is the key to survival. Cofco has a high-end rice grain and oil gift brand "endowment spirit", relying on the high-end raw materials, strict control and origin of strict segregation, in no propaganda circumstance, a year with 50 million sales, brand premium ability is far better than cofco public brand FuLin door and similar products.

It is said that Japan has a region in a very high quality rice, limited resources, every year, and dozens of tons of production capacity demand exceeds supply, so the price is very expensive. "Information mining" brand the road may be in the future must be copying such experience, quality, brand and cultural enough, who said rice grain and oil these necessaries of life can't make high-end luxury?

The rich groups of mainstream is actually a very of tangled groups: the inner superstition worship to Europe, American, but oral to pretend patriotic; Because of the lack of enough power and grade, they are often "Da Vinci" such a foreign brand damage; They and the middle classes also the lack of safety, no stable value idea, let they can believe limited contact media (such as the plane of the magazine) and surrounding the same social status of narrow circle of friends.

To set up the traditional high-end brand enterprise, in the face of such groups, the biggest problem is how to interpret their brand advantages, and let the information carrier by which naturally to target the rich among groups to, buy the convenient but is a problem. When you go to France and Hong Kong see Mrs. The power of China group you will believe that: the rich is trouble and trouble time-consuming.

So, impress the rich buy high-end brand immediately must be can satisfy his psychology satisfied insurance umbrella warmth, satisfied; Must be meet his noble life habits and the way some advocates; Must be can make him realize this lifetime unable to realize the dream of poppy let him intoxicated in perfect individual joy cannot extricate oneself and sober.

Traditional enterprise, if you understand this, make high-end brand should be relatively easy to some!

The dollar will remain strong trend

This week, investors for the global economic worries about a recession to dollars continue to be going strong support, and in addition to the other main outside the yen currency is the dollars down repeatedly, including commodity money break intensified. In addition, gold, oil and other commodities prices drop $also makes hedge function ascension. Next week, the dollar is expected to continue to maintain go strong or strong finishing. Among them, the commodity currencies will still encounter is expected to high pressure, the European currency may appear larger consolidation trends, the dollar will continue to stalemate, but the trend is going strong tendency.

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Tianjin ms. Wang: the dollar now this $how to operate? I bought a $1.0230 is near the, this several days dropped to 0.9800.

Magmatic: commodity money is expected to plunge will continue to repeated lower, the personal suggest you short line in 0.9880 and above consider reducing the or stop liquidated. In addition, if has the investment consideration, Suggestions can temporarily $ignored because of the fluctuation of exchange rate, in a further down to 0.9300 against the dollar to consider the margin. Not only is the Australian dollar, and the dollar also rebounded strongly in c $, investors in the exchange rate, please technical callbacks c $holdings, specific can consider exchange rate in near 1.0140 below and holdings.

Fuzhou Mr. Lin: the euro against the dollar, pound the dollar has dropped, can now buy?

Magmatic: euro dollars at present in 1.3500 repeatedly near steady, is expected to $1.5000 or above in the pound have support, at present can consider light warehouse buying the euro, the pound. Short line consider price as follows: the euro dollars 1.3420 to 1.3460 range, the breakthrough 1.3650 with margin. The pound dollars 1.5270 to 1.5320 range, the breakthrough 1.5500 consider with margin.

Shanghai miss xu: the dollar against the yen, how to operate?

Magmatic: suggest to buy the dollar, patience, hold. Despite the current from cross dish hedge trade that the yen relatively steady, but the overall to the dollar on the possibility of further sharply lower, can consider to buy dollars is gradually against the yen, patience, held to more than 80.00.

With trade and contrarian trading different

 Foreign exchange trading to act, not contrarian operation. This is easier said than done, themselves. If not difficult to won't have with losses, contrarian earnings of the phenomenon. Difficult difficult in from this perspective is conveniently, and from that perspective is contrarian. Difficult difficult in the homeopathy is before, but after admission into an asset.

From the picture it looks, is rising, from hour chart decline is watching. So what should conform to the day on the graph trend or hours on the graph trend? Some say do long term should conform to the trend of the big level, do short line should conform to the small levels of the trend.

Even if you determine which should conform to the trend, then with can profit, contrarian will losses? If the market is a straight line, then with certain profitable, inverse shun must losses. However the facts, take advantage of not necessarily profitable, have the person of experience they conveniently losses. And the people also are not profit contrarian not, and will not be in the minority. The root of the problem lies in the market is not a straight line, but the waves progress. In the rising trend in the market will have a callback, decline in will have rebounded. Death embrace with the idea of trading, if you buy the exchange rate in the rising trend in high or relative high, then you would lose money. If you sell in the highest point in the rising trend or relatively high, and you can profit.

Some people say that if you buy in the rising trend in the relatively high does not matter, for relatively high not trend reversal points, and it is only a callback point, trapping is temporary, callback after they will make a profit. This has certain truth, but the problem is that if you is the trend of the date line, so, the online a decent callback, junior 500 points, much thousands of point, if you can bear with deep set of suffering heart, your money if you can stand live this even temporary loss.

Many times to see someone with that transactions important, from the Angle of probability explanation, said in the rising trend in, buy the wrong position only a bit, but the position to buy without number. So in this case, why still have so many people buy in the high? Why does a person and buy the high in many times? This is due to the formation of the trend of people know there is a process, the trend would have formed, but wait until people to know the trend formed, often is the trend closer to the end, and this is one reason the root of repeatedly make such errors. The problem is not with probability can explain, and should be from people's understanding process, people heart factors to explain. Trend form is one thing, people realize that the formation of the trend is one thing, and there is distance between them.

Trade with suitable only for early trend, so for those who only deal with the person is very useful, profitable, to know the people sleep after after it useless, easy to cause the loss. If after the people know and sleep in he decided to buy, to sell may be profitable. Loss compared with earnings, but the direction of the buying and selling of different, often for the loss of the people, which in turn do, namely originally going to buy to sell, the plan to sell to buy, not to become profitable in losses?

Will tell from some kind of meaning, profit must be and market of the direction, the loss must be and the direction of the market does not agree. If we take a deal with the starting point of the attachment, you will find, the profit of sheet of attachment must be and market direction. Losses of attachment must be with the market in opposite directions.

Only when the deal with the trend and direction of the former trade only, they will make a profit. This often occurs in the early of the formation of the trend. This is the man who only the cause of the profit. With the trend of the trade if after admission and before the trend instead, would lose money. This is why, after the loss of the reason people with high. Only after the trade in against the trend and the trend of the former agreement, will losses. If the trend after trading in contrarian with the trend of the former is not the same, but they will make a profit. Visible, we say with trade, only in the direction of the trend after admission to the trend of rather than before, will be profitable. And contrarian deal, if with the direction of the trend can also profits, although the entry of inverse before trend. So, we say that conveniently trade, don't contrarian trading, rather, should it be, want to comply with the trend after the deal, don't the entry of inverse after trading trend. With the trend of the future is to, is also the contrarian inverse the trend of the future. Only in this meaning up understanding, can conveniently profit, contrarian will losses.

Deal with earnings are conditions, the same trading loss is a contrarian conditions. Can't mechanical understanding conveniently trade, don't contrarian deal, can't emphasize the conveniently trade don't contrarian deal. If not with trade, won't have so many Chinese people, and whether people or the people, more than 6000 points in the stock market in chase after go up, caused the commitment to today's more than 1000 points of the carnage. Don't worry about with contrarian, and profitable. With good, or contrarian good, let the market talk.

Use of the international capital flows, make your foreign exchange trading profits

In order to seek some economic purpose, the international capital will in each market occurs frequently between the transfer, this also is the international flow of capital one of the main ways. In the floating exchange rate system, capital flow (especially short term capital flow) can make a volatile currency exchange rate increases the range or abate. Whether by currency exchange rate fluctuations or be more stable, international financial flows of the ultimate aim is to seek profits. The higher profits, the money went to there flow.

In the current personal foreign exchange transactions, if you buy, sell currency and international capital flow direction is consistent with it, then you will get bigger profits. So individual traders should pay close attention to the direction of the flow between international capital.

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In the present international foreign exchange market, the most common capital flow mainly displays in the following aspects:

A, trade capital flow. Generally refers to exporters, importers in the buying and selling of goods happened in the capital flow.

Second, the bank capital flow. On one hand, the bank of the business needs, such as arbitrage, arbitrage, empty positions offset, such as on the positions; On the other hand, but also in terms of its central Banks or it their currencies rise or fall too, in the foreign exchange market intervention and use of the money. Now in early January, the bank of Japan to prevent the yen appreciation hit the 100 mark, in at 102 to the dollar near, heavy selling yen. That the Japanese yen in the February 22 fall to lowest point this year one dollar to 111.73 yen, the Japanese yen fell nearly 10%.

Three, value capital flow. This part of the capital flow displays in:

1. Hedge funds. Due to a region, a volatile political situation instability, cause capital outflows, graph security. If the kosovo crisis in Europe last year, the fund wantonly contributed to selling euros. This is also a weaker euro caused one of the factors.

2. Currency value funds. This part of the general investment funds in higher currency, namely funds from low interest rates inflows currency higher interest rates, currency will be high market favour and adored, such as dollars, pounds sterling, etc. At the same time the country of payments, fiscal policy will lead to this part of the good and the flow of funds.

Four, speculative capital flows. This part of the capital flow of currency exchange rate fluctuation has enormous influence, is also the fastest flow frequency. Such as October 7, 1998 morning Tokyo plate for the yen at 128 to the dollar, but in the day of night the European market, the yen rose to the highest one dollar to 111.70 yen, single day rose nearly 13%.

This shows speculative international currency markets in what is a role. Investors how to grasp the trend of international mainstream capital?

1. To understand all sorts of relevant international financial market, investment markets. If the stock market: including the word of the United States? Jones index, the nasdaq index, Hong Kong's hang seng index, Japan's nikkei index, and so on. The major countries in the world of the bond market, gold and oil prices, and related products, such as the futures market.

2. Want to hold the market of capital between the flow. Such as international stock market and trading of capital between the flow.

3. To identify the Lord, times have international capital flow ability of flow.

4. Should have certain analysis tool (analysis software) as the foundation. Such as technology office, instant messaging, instant trading market prices, and the relevant economic data

Based on the exchange rate of the investment strategy

 Foreign investment in many famous case is directional, i.e., bet on a currency trend. One of the most classic should be on September 16, 1992's "black Wednesday", soros because the short worth roughly $10 billion pounds and a profit of 1.1 billion dollars and world famous. At the time, the pounds in 1990 to join the European exchange rate mechanism (ERM) will exchange rate is scheduled for 2.95 after mark, and British domestic inflation is several times that of Germany. The pound eventually caused overvalued market exit the imagination of ERM to pound. When investors start to a large shorting pounds sterling and form of the pressure, the British government raise interest rates to 12% in the open market and buy pounds to intervene. But the market and wouldn't budge, and the British government intervention impact on the domestic economy is too big, and ultimately was forced to withdraw from ERM, realize the pounds of floating exchange rate. Soros great about not just his pounds to analysis, judgement, more important is his confidence and determination (namely the industry often said conviction). $10 billion in now are huge Numbers, at the time the basic hard to imagine. Soros then during the Asian financial crisis also to some Asian currencies do empty, the most famous is the baht and Malaysian ringgit.

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Foreign investment, and a case little-known. That is against the U.S. dollar buffett shorting. Buffett has been considered the long-term investors based on basic, so the macro investment for him it seems out of bounds things. But Mr Buffett has long been $to see empty, and in the foreign exchange market with forward contracts for the implementation of the dollar shorting. Now he still see empty in dollars.

Have a look at the empty dollar investor, Jim Rogers. He was soros partner, focus on the macro investment, especially commodities investment. Mr Rogers see empty behavior do more thoroughly-he simply from the United States move out, live in Singapore.

In addition to the above these for a certain currency have clear directional views, and do empty strategy by the relevant foreign exchange of investment, one of the most common is the concept of the Carry Trade, also called the Carry Trade. The reason that is concept, because Carry Trade around, have a series of investment behavior, can generally called the name. Typical of the Carry Trade is refers to borrow a low interest rate currency (such as dollars), investment to a higher rates of currency (such as Australian dollars), earn interest spread. Carry refers to the interest spread is, can are, can also be negative. Because can make great leverage, so seemingly small carry can also bring a lot of benefits. But the lever is a two-edged sword. When the market to adverse, high lever brings the huge deficit may be rapidly. Investors in the currency proceeds can be not only confined to interest rates, in currency exchange after to still can investment to other areas such as bond, the stock market, real estate, etc. Of course that strategy is more radical, for by the investment field liquidity is getting worse, and here the Carry more and more is also refer to the fuzzy (for example, some assets may only by appreciation to achieve the arbitrage, usually, and does not provide a cash flow, there would be no Carry). Liquidity is poor, so when the market adverse to cash, he might be in trouble.

In the foreign exchange market Carry Trade, more classic RongZiFang Currency (Funding Currency) is the Currency of the low interest rates, such as the Japanese yen and the dollars. The investor money is usually high interest rate currencies, and many times is resources their currencies, such as the Australian dollar. But, as China's robust economic development, especially for the strengthening of the RMB appreciation, the yuan in the past few years, the investor has increasingly become the currency. The so-called "hot money" also is pegged to the Chinese investment opportunities and the appreciation of the renminbi, and here are the concept of Carry Trade and shadow.

Because closely at hk $$$so relative almost no fluctuations, but the market is still occasionally imagine the speculation of Hong Kong dollars. For Hong Kong dollars, the market is mainly in the hk $$to decoupled imagine. Hk peg to the dollar mechanism has been very successful, after the previous test, including the 1997 Asian financial crisis at the market impact. But, the market about hk dollar link from the guess emerge, even from this investment real gold and silver. Hk decoupling theory of U.S. monetary policy, comes from basically the criticism and the appreciation of the renminbi to the expected. The United States because of the economic problems facing the great and have to maintain a low interest rate, and that the dollar will also have to hk also kept interest rates at very low position. This can make the Hong Kong economic bubble risk, one of the most obvious is the real estate market. This is a Hong Kong dollars and the value of the yuan should be said. However, the hkma Hong Kong is always very firmly to decoupling said denies.

Foreign exchange (in fact the main that dollars) market and commodities market also is closely linked. The dollar is stronger currencies in the global economy enormous influence. In the international market, the main commodities priced in dollars, so the us dollar trend for commodities influence is very big. Generally speaking, the dollar weak, the commodities going strong. This is because commodity exporters in the dollar weak, often to raise prices to make up through the loss of purchasing power. Conversely, when the dollar is strong, commodity prices are often will also fall.

Recent gold prices go strong, the corresponding $is also behind a weaker. Not only that, in order to deal with the global financial and economic crisis, all countries to their currency are taking the so-called "competitive devaluation". Because any currency exchange rate are relative to other currencies, so a currency appreciation means another currency devaluation of the corresponding. But if all the money devalued, it actually means that the monetary system relative to precious metals devaluation. This policy if long-term continue, it will be to the precious metal market, such as gold and silver market an impact.

Dollars in history and even shows the negative correlation with the Chinese stock market. That dollars go strong, weak stock market. A weak dollar, the stock market is going strong. Of course it's only history data from the discovery of a simple phenomenon. But also seems to be quite reasonable: as the dollar "hedge heaven" function, the dollar go strong, often is the global economy weak. The stock market go weak seems to also is natural.

Exchange rate changes may also influence the performance of the company. To export oriented company always hope of their currencies. So, your production products in the international market is competitive, but at the same time the income of foreign currency conversion cost countries and increase profitability. And like many of the gold mines of South Africa, has been big influence some $. For gold in dollar terms, and their costs to local currency valuation (rand). So when the South African rand appreciation, the gold mine is big profit affected.

In the economic and financial globalization today, because of the fluctuation of exchange rate for each market will have far-reaching effects. And because the market and the global economic system is full of uncertainty, exchange rate will inevitably occur fluctuations. On one hand because of the so-called $terry Stevens problem, long-term have been depreciation pressure. On the other hand, the federal reserve in the foreseeable future to maintain a low interest rate policy, also can have a negative impact on the dollar. And the euro in the past two years by sovereign debt problems always influence. Japan despite their own very serious potential problems, but the yen "hedge heaven" function has so far has not disappeared. And its recent rise suddenly acceleration, in addition to international there has always been outside appreciation pressure, seem to have to rise the intention of the control inflation. National currency system have their own characteristics, and exchange rate and different driving force. American monetary policy for many countries into trouble, and to the United States, the debt and dollars criticism of there also. But the dollar is still the most important currency. Seize this masterstroke dollars, we can all market to increase in investment from foreign exchange level of understanding.