The silver LTRO storm euro influence have how old?

The market is watching the European central bank on Wednesday (February 29) started the second round of the long-term refinancing operation (LTRO). LTRO always be regarded as in disguised form quantitative loose (QE), a new round of loose in the silver comes before the storm, the euro will influence and geometric? Reading this experts differ. Tuesday (feb. 28,) the city earlier, the euro has been rising steadily, high against the U.S. dollar reached 1.3450, almost recover all fall overnight.

For the silver this long-term financing scale again, after market expectations this scale up to nearly 1 trillion euros, far higher than last December the first round of the 489 billion euros, but at present the market expects second round LTRO scale may in 5000-700 billion, between euro.

According to foreign financial media to 30 financial market traders, a survey showed on Wednesday launched the European central bank, the second round of the LTRO scale will reach 500 billion euros, for European Banks, it may be the last time such an opportunity.

European central bank President jean-claude Della ji (Mario Draghi) 27 said, as the financial market confidence came in the second round after LTRO, is expected to increase credit European banking will scale. For a new round of LTRO, the silver more hope funds can be used to direct lending to the real economy.

But, the market questioned the case. Economic growth momentum is insufficient, the banking industry is still remain cautious attitude, more willing to keep capital, and will be idle cash deposited in the European central bank, and not for lending.

In fact, in the first round LTRO implementation after a week, the eurozone Banks in the European central bank deposit for the overnight hit a record 411.8 billion euros, show that the European central bank into much of the money in the credit markets did not, but again back to save the European central bank. At the end of 2011, the European central bank deposits in Banks worldwide scale and highest level in nearly 15 years.

Red ear International (Mizuho International) in London's chief European economist Riccardo Barbieri said, "I don't think the silver in the second round of LTRO can solve all of the plague, but I hope this will help to help us from the current debt crisis in one of the worst situation out of it."

In fact, since the European central bank first start since 3 10-year LTRO, outside the euro zone countries sharply down bond yields, make the attraction of the carry trade financing from; In the so-called carry trade financing, some Banks from the central bank so low cost money, get to the low rating the eurozone countries issue of high-yield bonds.

Laureates, MIT professor Krugman (Paul Krugman) published in the New York times article, full of auspicious Della's blessing. He pushes praise at Della can "despite inflation concerns, aggressively expanding credit, and the latter is the doctors prescribe medicine".

Economic and social research institute think-tank the experts feith case rhode (John FitzGerald) also think, the European central bank long-term financing the utility of the operation to "good surprise".

However, experts point out that, if the European central bank the money provided no large scale than expected, for example, more than 800 billion euros, then expected high risk, high income assets may not be so significant rebound. Even if again injecting massive fund, also can't sustain maintain peripheral countries bond markets.

In the second round of the euro LTRO impacts, experts didn't agree. The French Paris bank in North America forex strategy director Ray Attrill said, the European central bank LTRO will provide further for the euro positive kinetic energy, the first half of this year is expected to euro will impact $1.40.

He said, "in our view, if the European central bank LTRO financing scale for implementation 500 billion euros or more, it will effectively stimulates the market risk. At the same time, this means that mood will fall, the euro dollar awaits rise."

However, royal bank of Scotland (RBS) global foreign exchange strategy director Robert Sinche says, "I don't call the euro prospects. Based on our of the euro/dollar model, as long as the European central bank to see LTRO scale for 350 billion euro, will weaken the euro/dollar exchange rate of about 1.5 cents."

Citigroup (Citigroup) analysts also said, "if the amount of the funds is too high (close to 1 trillion euros), the European central bank's assets will increase, so the scale of euro exchange rate may withstand the pressure."