Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Based on the exchange rate of the investment strategy

 Foreign investment in many famous case is directional, i.e., bet on a currency trend. One of the most classic should be on September 16, 1992's "black Wednesday", soros because the short worth roughly $10 billion pounds and a profit of 1.1 billion dollars and world famous. At the time, the pounds in 1990 to join the European exchange rate mechanism (ERM) will exchange rate is scheduled for 2.95 after mark, and British domestic inflation is several times that of Germany. The pound eventually caused overvalued market exit the imagination of ERM to pound. When investors start to a large shorting pounds sterling and form of the pressure, the British government raise interest rates to 12% in the open market and buy pounds to intervene. But the market and wouldn't budge, and the British government intervention impact on the domestic economy is too big, and ultimately was forced to withdraw from ERM, realize the pounds of floating exchange rate. Soros great about not just his pounds to analysis, judgement, more important is his confidence and determination (namely the industry often said conviction). $10 billion in now are huge Numbers, at the time the basic hard to imagine. Soros then during the Asian financial crisis also to some Asian currencies do empty, the most famous is the baht and Malaysian ringgit.

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Foreign investment, and a case little-known. That is against the U.S. dollar buffett shorting. Buffett has been considered the long-term investors based on basic, so the macro investment for him it seems out of bounds things. But Mr Buffett has long been $to see empty, and in the foreign exchange market with forward contracts for the implementation of the dollar shorting. Now he still see empty in dollars.

Have a look at the empty dollar investor, Jim Rogers. He was soros partner, focus on the macro investment, especially commodities investment. Mr Rogers see empty behavior do more thoroughly-he simply from the United States move out, live in Singapore.

In addition to the above these for a certain currency have clear directional views, and do empty strategy by the relevant foreign exchange of investment, one of the most common is the concept of the Carry Trade, also called the Carry Trade. The reason that is concept, because Carry Trade around, have a series of investment behavior, can generally called the name. Typical of the Carry Trade is refers to borrow a low interest rate currency (such as dollars), investment to a higher rates of currency (such as Australian dollars), earn interest spread. Carry refers to the interest spread is, can are, can also be negative. Because can make great leverage, so seemingly small carry can also bring a lot of benefits. But the lever is a two-edged sword. When the market to adverse, high lever brings the huge deficit may be rapidly. Investors in the currency proceeds can be not only confined to interest rates, in currency exchange after to still can investment to other areas such as bond, the stock market, real estate, etc. Of course that strategy is more radical, for by the investment field liquidity is getting worse, and here the Carry more and more is also refer to the fuzzy (for example, some assets may only by appreciation to achieve the arbitrage, usually, and does not provide a cash flow, there would be no Carry). Liquidity is poor, so when the market adverse to cash, he might be in trouble.

In the foreign exchange market Carry Trade, more classic RongZiFang Currency (Funding Currency) is the Currency of the low interest rates, such as the Japanese yen and the dollars. The investor money is usually high interest rate currencies, and many times is resources their currencies, such as the Australian dollar. But, as China's robust economic development, especially for the strengthening of the RMB appreciation, the yuan in the past few years, the investor has increasingly become the currency. The so-called "hot money" also is pegged to the Chinese investment opportunities and the appreciation of the renminbi, and here are the concept of Carry Trade and shadow.

Because closely at hk $$$so relative almost no fluctuations, but the market is still occasionally imagine the speculation of Hong Kong dollars. For Hong Kong dollars, the market is mainly in the hk $$to decoupled imagine. Hk peg to the dollar mechanism has been very successful, after the previous test, including the 1997 Asian financial crisis at the market impact. But, the market about hk dollar link from the guess emerge, even from this investment real gold and silver. Hk decoupling theory of U.S. monetary policy, comes from basically the criticism and the appreciation of the renminbi to the expected. The United States because of the economic problems facing the great and have to maintain a low interest rate, and that the dollar will also have to hk also kept interest rates at very low position. This can make the Hong Kong economic bubble risk, one of the most obvious is the real estate market. This is a Hong Kong dollars and the value of the yuan should be said. However, the hkma Hong Kong is always very firmly to decoupling said denies.

Foreign exchange (in fact the main that dollars) market and commodities market also is closely linked. The dollar is stronger currencies in the global economy enormous influence. In the international market, the main commodities priced in dollars, so the us dollar trend for commodities influence is very big. Generally speaking, the dollar weak, the commodities going strong. This is because commodity exporters in the dollar weak, often to raise prices to make up through the loss of purchasing power. Conversely, when the dollar is strong, commodity prices are often will also fall.

Recent gold prices go strong, the corresponding $is also behind a weaker. Not only that, in order to deal with the global financial and economic crisis, all countries to their currency are taking the so-called "competitive devaluation". Because any currency exchange rate are relative to other currencies, so a currency appreciation means another currency devaluation of the corresponding. But if all the money devalued, it actually means that the monetary system relative to precious metals devaluation. This policy if long-term continue, it will be to the precious metal market, such as gold and silver market an impact.

Dollars in history and even shows the negative correlation with the Chinese stock market. That dollars go strong, weak stock market. A weak dollar, the stock market is going strong. Of course it's only history data from the discovery of a simple phenomenon. But also seems to be quite reasonable: as the dollar "hedge heaven" function, the dollar go strong, often is the global economy weak. The stock market go weak seems to also is natural.

Exchange rate changes may also influence the performance of the company. To export oriented company always hope of their currencies. So, your production products in the international market is competitive, but at the same time the income of foreign currency conversion cost countries and increase profitability. And like many of the gold mines of South Africa, has been big influence some $. For gold in dollar terms, and their costs to local currency valuation (rand). So when the South African rand appreciation, the gold mine is big profit affected.

In the economic and financial globalization today, because of the fluctuation of exchange rate for each market will have far-reaching effects. And because the market and the global economic system is full of uncertainty, exchange rate will inevitably occur fluctuations. On one hand because of the so-called $terry Stevens problem, long-term have been depreciation pressure. On the other hand, the federal reserve in the foreseeable future to maintain a low interest rate policy, also can have a negative impact on the dollar. And the euro in the past two years by sovereign debt problems always influence. Japan despite their own very serious potential problems, but the yen "hedge heaven" function has so far has not disappeared. And its recent rise suddenly acceleration, in addition to international there has always been outside appreciation pressure, seem to have to rise the intention of the control inflation. National currency system have their own characteristics, and exchange rate and different driving force. American monetary policy for many countries into trouble, and to the United States, the debt and dollars criticism of there also. But the dollar is still the most important currency. Seize this masterstroke dollars, we can all market to increase in investment from foreign exchange level of understanding.

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